Albert, V. N. & King, W. C. (2017). Impact of short lifetime limits on child neglect. Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare, 44(2), 53-78.
Past research has demonstrated that loss of income is an important risk factor for child neglect. This study examined the relationship between policy changes that reduced cash assistance eligibility for needy families and substantiated cases of child neglect in the state of Arizona during the economic recession of 2007. In response to the recession, Arizona reduced Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program cash assistance payment levels and lifetime eligibility limits from 60 months to 36 months, then shortened these lifetime limits further to 24 months. Using data from both child neglect and TANF caseloads in Arizona, the study conducted a time-series multivariate analysis for an eight-year period (2005 to 2013) to examine the impact of TANF policy on child neglect.
The time series analysis demonstrated that reductions in TANF payment levels, TANF lifetime limits, and higher levels of children in poverty were associated with an increase in child neglect cases in Arizona. Specifically, the results showed that Arizona's monthly substantiated child neglect caseload increased from 313 to 836, or by 213 percent, during the time period that the TANF lifetime limits were reduced (2009-2012). When Arizona’s TANF lifetime limit was reduced from 60 months to 36 months in 2010, the state’s substantiated neglect cases increased by 190 children (p < 0.01). When the lifetime limit was further reduced to 24 months in 2011, neglect cases increased by 461 per month (p < 0.01). Other co-variates included in the model were unemployment rate (using a two-month lag, assuming job loss would take time to affect care of children) and non-marital births. However, the change in unemployment rate over time demonstrated a minor effect on neglect caseloads, while the number of non-marital births had no effect.
These findings suggest that the TANF policy changes in Arizona resulted in significantly increased substantiated child neglect cases in the state. Although previous studies of the relationship between child welfare and economic trends have generally used cross-sectional and national-level data, the recession did not affect all states or localities equally or in the same way over time during this recession. Thus, by using a time series analysis to examine the effects of TANF policy changes on child neglect caseloads in one state, they were able to demonstrate that reductions in economic safety-net programs were strongly associated with an increased need for child welfare services over time.
Due to data limitations, the researchers could not distinguish between families who became ineligible to apply for TANF and families who lost their TANF benefits due to the policy changes. The researchers also did not look at changes to other policies (such as the increase in child welfare service funding) during the same time period that could also affect child neglect caseloads. Moreover, the study did not examine differential effects of TANF policy changes according to family demographic variables, such as race/ethnicity and poverty levels. Despite these limitations, the study also demonstrates the potential impact that policy changes in one sector have on other sectors and, most importantly, on family and child well-being.